This video shows the projected impact of climate change on the suitability of habitat for the conifer Callitris verrucosa (Mallee pine) in Australia, and the consequences for the size and distributions of populations for the period 2000-2100. Habitat suitability is indicated by green shading (darker green = higher suitability), and populations are indicated by points, with each point representing the centroid of an occupied patch of suitable habitat (low to high relative abundance shown by dark red, through white, to dark blue). Suitable habitat is projected to contract southward with time, and populations to shift and decline accordingly.

These projections were produced through integration of a Maxent model of habitat suitability (trained on observed occurrence localities and current climate and projected to a future climate associated with the A1FI emissions scenario), and a RAMAS Metapop model of population dynamics.

This integrated model forms part of the research of Dr Tracey Regan, research fellow at the School of Botany, The University of Melbourne. She will be presenting her work at the Ecological Society of America’s 96th Annual Meeting this Friday, August 12th at 10:50am.